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I don’t think many people in the trade will be sad to see 2024 end. While some have dismissed sobering stats about the state of the art market as “doom porn,” there’s no arguing that it’s been a tough year, marked by falling prices, rising costs, and lots of economic uncertainty.

As a parting shot for the year, I’ll tell you that fine-art auction sales to date are down to $9.4 billion, according to the Artnet Price Database. A heavy caveat here: Figures from the last month of major sales are still trickling in. But given that total sales across Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips November auctions in New York dropped by 44.6 percent year-on-year, as I noted last week, I don’t think 2024’s final results will be anywhere near 2023’s $14 billion.

However, there’s widespread hope that the worst is behind us. I, for one, am willing to believe in the power of positive thinking, but I don’t think we’re heading for an all-out rebound. Instead, 2025 offers the promise of change—and change can be good. Here are three areas where it’s already underway.

Ai-Da, A.I. God (2024). Photo: courtesy Sotheby’s.

1. A.I. Adoption

If 2023 was defined by the rapid development of A.I., 2024 brought widespread experimentation with its potential. Recall the London Standard’s decision in September to publish an (underwhelming) A.I.-written art review in the voice of the long-dead art critic Brian Sewell. Last month, a work called A.I. God, created by an A.I. robot, went under the hammer for the first time, selling for $1.1 million as part of Sotheby’s Digital Art Sale.

In 2025, A.I. will evolve from a novelty in the art trade to a strategic tool for enhancing efficiency and achieving a competitive advantage. We’re already seeing it filter into the day-to-day workings of art businesses. Art Basel partnered with Microsoft to launch an app ahead of its 2024 Miami Beach edition last week that was designed to “enhance” visitor experiences with A.I. features such as personalized recommendations about where to go and what to see at the show based on user preferences.

A.I.-based art authentication has been a headline topic in recent years but had next to no real-world adopters within the art market. That changed at the end of November, when Germann Auction House in Zurich broke ground by using A.I. authentication in the sale of works by Louise Bourgeois, Marianne von Werefkin, and Mimmo Paladino.

2. Next-Gen Takeover

A new generation of art buyers is gaining ground in the art market. Over the next two decades, $84.4 trillion will shift from older to younger generations in the U.S. alone, fueling what’s being called the “great wealth transfer.”

Art Basel Miami Beach 2024 merch from the Art Basel Shop. Courtesy of Art Basel.

Art businesses have been working hard over the last several years to diversify their collector bases by appealing to younger buyers with luxury retail and concept stores featuring high-end merch (see: the launch of the Art Basel Shop). As the wealth transfer unfolds over the coming years, it is essential that art firms meet these new buyers where they are, rather than trying to convert them into more traditional art collectors.

“We are really at a tipping point, and the reason we’re at a tipping point is because of the banana” said art market journalist Georgina Adam at the Art Business Conference in Paris earlier this month. She was citing Justin Sun’s $6.2 million purchase of Maurizio Cattelan’s duct-taped banana using cryptocurrency as proof of younger generations’ comfort with digital tools. According to Adam, the sale was a clarion call to the art world to adapt.

The recent Bitcoin rally may prove a watershed moment. While cryptocurrencies remain volatile, President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of many pro-crypto lawmakers to key posts is likely to lead to some regulatory clarity, which could inspire more confidence in the field. (Sun, for the record, just invested $30 million in Trump’s cryptocurrency project, World Liberty Financial.) But as a digitally savvy cohort of collectors moves in, auction houses and other art concerns would do well to make sure their systems are up to snuff. Anyone 40 or younger has spent half or more of their life online and won’t suffer companies that can’t offer baseline cybersecurity.

3. Gulf Growth

There is a recent flush of Investment in, and investment from, the Gulf region. In the last week, Saudi Arabia struck major deals with both France and the U.K. to fuel cultural infrastructure projects across all three countries. Christie’s announced in September that it is expanding its presence in the Middle East with an outpost in Riyadh, helmed by Nour Kelani. Not to be outdone, last month, rival Sotheby’s announced it will stage its first live auction there in February.

Nour Kelani, Christie’s new managing director, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. © Christie’s Images Ltd 2024.

Speaking of, Sotheby’s has seen “big” staff cuts this week, after a round of layoffs in the summer. These weren’t necessarily a surprise. They follow the $1 billion deal Sotheby’s owner, Patrick Drahi, struck with an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund for a minority stake in the firm. The deal comes on the heels of an 88 percent plunge in Sotheby’s overall earnings for the first half of 2024, and as Drahi’s telecom company, Altice, labors under a reported $60 billion mountain of debt.

Meanwhile, rumors circulated last month that Art Basel may be in negotiations to take over Abu Dhabi Art as Endeavor, Frieze’s parent company, eyes selling its fairs. Galleries are following suit: the London-based JD Malat is opening a gallery in Dubai in early 2025.