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Yoshitomo Nara’s paintings of sweet but slightly menacing children are beloved by collectors all over the world, but could demand be cooling?

When Baby Blue was first shown, at Marianne Boesky in 1999, New York Times critic Roberta Smith praised it as part of a “cast of cute but demonic cartoon toddlers [who] pack a potent visual punch.” The work was the top lot of Phillips Modern and contemporary evening auction in Hong Kong on November 25, where it sold for HK$42 million ($5.8 million). It marked the painting’s third time under the hammer in the last two decades, but only the first that it hasn’t fetched significantly more than its estimate.

Yoshitomo Nara’s Baby Blue (1999). Courtesy of Phillips.

According to the Artnet Price Database, the work first appeared at auction in 2005, when Christie’s offered it with a high estimate of $150,000. It sold for more than double that: $307,000. The canvas was offered again in May 2015 at Sotheby’s, where it sold for $2 million, again more than twice its estimate of $700,000 to $900,000.

Artnet’s analytics reveal that global auction sales by volume of Nara’s work have dropped by 32 percent from last year, and 56 percent since the peak year of 2021. This follows a global art market contraction that saw auction sales shrink by 29.5 percent in the first half of 2024, versus the same time period last year.

This year marks the first time since 2002, when the artist’s work first appeared at auction, that more lots have sold for less than their average estimate than those that sold for above their estimate.