This article is part of the Artnet Intelligence Report Year Ahead 2024. Through in-depth analysis of last year’s market performance, the new edition paints a data-driven picture of the art world today, from the latest auction results to the artists and artworks leading the conversation.

Ultra-Contemporary

Jia Aili’s Combustion (2016), which set a record for the artist at auction, came in fourth place in the ultra-contemporary category. © Jia Aili Studio, courtesy of Christie’s Images Ltd. 2024

After three years of rampant speculation on the work of young artists, observers wondered if the bubble for ultra-contemporary art—which we define as work made by artists born after 1974—would burst in 2023. The reality, at least at the very top end, was not quite so dramatic. Estimates for pieces by commercial darlings dipped slightly, which enabled every work on this list to perform within or above expectations. Six of the top 10 lots also carried a financial guarantee, adding a bit more predictability to the market’s most volatile sector.

Source: Artnet Price Database and Artnet Analytics.

Notably, the category was boosted by resurgent interest in Asia: five of the priciest works were sold in Hong Kong. The top end of the ultra-contemporary market remains dominated by a small group of artists with powerful galleries and collectors who are deeply invested in their continued success.

Contemporary

Jenny Saville’s Shift (1996–97), which was sold by the founders of Shanghai’s Long Museum, was the eighth bestselling contemporary artwork at auction last year. © 2024 Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York / DACS, London.

Basquiat fever shows no sign of abating. The late American artist created six of the 10 most expensive works sold last year in the contemporary category, which we define as work by artists born between 1945 and 1974. “Basquiat appeals to the connoisseur-collector, the speculator, and the newer and younger collector,” said Betsy Bickar, a senior art advisor at Citi Private Bank. Last year marked the first time that any woman—let alone two (Julie Mehretu and Jenny Saville)—cracked the category’s top 10 lots since we began compiling annual reports, in 2019.

Source: Artnet Price Database and Artnet Analytics.

No result exceeded its estimate before the addition of auction-house fees, however, and price points have fallen markedly overall. Consider that in 2021 six Basquiats sold for more than $30 million each. Two years later, only two works by the artist reached that level. As Bickar observed, in 2023 “appetites were not insatiable.”

Photography

Robert Frank’s ‘Charleston S.C.’ (1955), which was consigned by the Pilara Family Foundation, came in sixth place in the photography category. Courtesy of Sotheby’s.

When does a market slowdown spell opportunity? There are “not that many people willing to pay exceptional prices for exceptional work” in the photography sector at the moment, even though “really significant” pieces are available, according to the art advisor Todd Levin. Last year’s top price, $1.6 million for Richard Prince’s Untitled (Cowboy) (1999), pales in comparison with the $12.4 million paid for Man Ray’s Le Violon d’Ingres (1924) in 2022.

Source: Artnet Price Database and Artnet Analytics.

The Ray work, which set a record for the most expensive photograph ever sold, was an outlier in a market that is characterized by a lack of speculation, even on the work of legendary figures. The two Cindy Sherman film stills on this list, for example, sold for $971,691 and $693,000, while comparable examples have sold for as much as $3 million.

Postwar

Richard Diebenkorn’s Recollections of a Visit to Leningrad (1965) set a record for the artist and was the top-selling work in the postwar category. © Richard Diebenkorn Foundation.

There were few fireworks in the postwar category, which encompasses work by artists born between 1911 and 1944. Bidding was thin. Every piece on this list carried a financial guarantee, and none exceeded its estimate before the addition of auction house fees. A rare high point was the $46.4 million achieved for a somewhat atypical but seminal canvas by the West Coast painter Richard Diebenkorn, which smashed the late artist’s previous record of $27.3 million, set in 2021.

Source: Artnet Price Database and Artnet Analytics.

The two highest prices ever paid for a Joan Mitchell painting at auction were also notched within the span of two weeks last fall. “Serious collectors are strapping in at auction now—they are all focused on the same few artworks of exceptional quality, and they all know the sensible current market price,” said the art advisor Todd Levin.

Impressionist and Modern

Claude Monet’s Le bassin aux nymphéas (1917–19), which carried an unpublished estimate of $65 million, was the third bestselling work in the Impressionist and Modern category. Christie’s Images Ltd. 2024.

The Impressionist and Modern category, which comprises work made by artists born between 1821 and 1910, is not the place to go to make a quick buck. Last year’s best- performing paintings had been off the market for decades. Fifty-five years after Emily Fisher Landau bought Pablo Picasso’s Femme à la montre (1932) from Pace Gallery, it generated $139.4 million for her estate at Sotheby’s. Gustav Klimt’s final portrait became the most expensive work of art ever auctioned in Europe almost 30 years after it last hit the block, when it sold for $11.6 million.

Source: Artnet Price Database and Artnet Analytics.

Less impressive was the $46.4 million achieved by Mark Rothko’s orange-hued painting from 1955. The canvas had changed hands several times since it last traded at auction, in 2014, and at last year’s Art Basel, it was offered— unsuccessfully—by Acquavella Galleries for $60 million, reportedly on behalf of the casino magnate Steve Wynn.

European Old Masters

El Greco’s The Entombment of Christ [detail] (1570s), which last traded at auction for $6.1 million in 2017, came in ninth place in the European Old Masters category. Christie’s Images Ltd. 2024.

Source: Artnet Price Database and Artnet Analytics.

However, compared with the totals achieved by other categories in 2023 and by Old Masters in previous years, the sector’s market was fairly sedate. It continues to be fueled, experts say, by an insular group of buyers and sellers. The supply of work by female Old Masters—the subject of growing enthusiasm in recent years—remains especially limited. None of the category’s top 10 lots at auction last year was by a woman.