How can you tell if the art market is overheated?

One clue may be the way journalists behave during evening sales. Not so long ago, some reporters wouldn’t even look up from their phones until a work crossed the $30 million threshold.

That boom era, however, is over—at least for now. After the remarkable peaks witnessed during 2021 and 2022, the art market fell back down to earth in 2023. The contraction was driven by multiple factors: climbing interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, the crypto crash, a supply squeeze— not to mention a significant number of collectors who gorged on art in recent years and chose to take a breather in 2023.

As times get tougher, it becomes all the more important to keep up appearances. The art market, more than almost any other industry, is shaped by sentiment. We know that marquee evening sales have transformed into the art-world equivalent of Broadway shows, with costumes, spotlights, and a big dose of razzle-dazzle. Less well understood are the ways in which the proceedings—and even final results—can be carefully stage-managed, especially following the repeal of a set of laws governing auction houses in New York City. In her must-read investigation, Artnet News senior reporter Katya Kazakina delves into the legal changes, and what they mean for buyers and sellers.

Elsewhere in this issue, Annie Armstrong talks to a consummate insider— mega-collector and art-fair founder Dean Valentine—about the future of the Los Angeles art scene. Artnet News and Morgan Stanley look beneath the topline auction numbers to explore how artists from various regions navigate the market differently, even in our age of hyper-globalization. And Artnet News contributor Julia Halperin, who edited this edition, delves into industry- wide auction results from 2023 to jettison the spin and deliver takeaways you can trust.

In today’s art market, there’s a whole lot going on behind the curtain. And we are keeping as close an eye on the $300,000 lots as we are the $30 million ones. Allow us to turn up the house lights and give you a better look.

– Naomi Rea, Acting Editor-in-Chief, Artnet News

— TABLE OF CONTENTS —

– Marketplace

• By the Numbers: Find out exactly how much the art market contracted last year.
• Zero to Hero: Meet the young artists defying the downturn.
• Artist Power Ranking: Compare the most-searched artists in 2005 vs. 2023.
• The Bestseller Lists: Discover the top 10 lots sold in every major category.

– The Greatest Show on Earth
by Katya Kazakina

The auction market has always been theatrical—but now, it’s more stage-managed than ever. Here’s what that means for buyers and sellers.

– 5 Questions for…
by Annie Armstrong, Vivienne Chow, and Katya Kazakina

• Dean Valentine on Los Angeles’s ascension.
• Amanda Hon on the future of the Hong Kong market. 
• Patricia Marshall on how Paris’s art scene can reach the next level.

– Data Dive
by Julia Halperin

• Which country’s art market was most resilient in 2023?
• How did online-only sales fare?
• Who are today’s most bankable artists? 

– Understanding Regional Differences in the Globalized Art Market
by Artnet News and Morgan Stanley

A closer look at the auction market for artists born in different regions shows how they take distinct paths to the hyperconnected art world.